Opinion Russian troops at Finland’s border and the security dilemma in Europe

In its latest move, Russia has begun expanding its military infrastructure along the Finland border. Some Western media reports suggest that new military tents, fighter jet shelters and warehouses are being constructed in unused places. The Russian military build-up has raised alarms in Helsinki, which views it as a deliberate attempt to threaten the country and destabilise the border. The level of construction is moderate but enough to cause concerns.

Ever since Finland became a member of NATO in 2023, the relationship between the two countries has worsened. Russia feels threatened because it shares a 1,340-km-long border with Finland. It used to be a buffer state earlier, but now, NATO forces will be present along the border.

Helsinki pursued a policy of neutrality and military non-alignment for a very long period. Despite having close ties with the West, it avoided becoming a member of NATO for a long time. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed the security dynamics, and the Nordic states started feeling threatened. Sweden and Finland abandoned their long-cherished policy and joined NATO. The irony is that even during the Cold War at its peak, these states were not NATO members.

Russia may or may not have any plan to extend its borders, but the war in Ukraine has heightened tensions in the region, and the Nordic and Baltic regions believe the Russian threat to be real. The latter states have raised their military budgets, are acquiring new weapons, and are frequently engaging in joint military exercises with NATO. They are the biggest proponents of installing missile defence systems against Russia. As it happens in a security dilemma, the adversary views these defensive measures as threats. Russia is feeling threatened because of Europe’s deterrent measures. NATO’s expansion, which includes incorporating Finland and Sweden, has now become a new concern for Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov stated at that time, “The enlargement of NATO is an encroachment on our security and Russia’s national interests.”

As of now, Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine, and the level of military build-up near the Finland border is moderate. However, in the European capitals, it is being perceived as the early stages of a larger Russian design to revive the Soviet Empire. Security experts believe it might become a flashpoint in the future because it borders the Arctic region, where Russia has considerable interests, not least because of its rare earth. The control over the Arctic is likely to intensify, given its geostrategic significance in terms of both resources and transportation.

Russia is focusing on the Finnish border primarily because of NATO’s activities. But these measures are largely defensive, and Moscow is unlikely to engage in a direct war with NATO. The asymmetry between the two sides is too high. The combined GDP of NATO countries at $54 trillion is roughly 24 times the size of Russia’s economy. Further, NATO’s defence budget of $1.5 trillion is about ten times larger than Russia’s. In addition, both sides have credible nuclear weapons. Under these circumstances, Russia will not want to be involved in any military misadventure against NATO. Nonetheless, the region is likely to experience heightened tensions, owing to both sides’ security measures and military preparedness. The security dilemma is here to stay.

The writer teaches at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi. Views are personal