Indiana Senate race: Donnelly faces pressure from both sides on Kavanaugh vote

9/4/18 4:53:46 PM -- Washington, DC, U.S.A  -- Supreme Court Associate Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee during his confirmation hearing on Sept. 4, 2018 in Washington. Kavanaugh was nominated by President Donald Trump to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy,who retired from the Supreme Court in July.  --    Photo by Jack Gruber, USA TODAY Staff ORG XMIT:  JG 137433 Kavanaugh Confir 9/4/2018 (Via OlyDrop)

Sen. Joe Donnelly is weighing perhaps the most polarizing decision he has faced during his six years in the Senate — and he is doing so while confronting unprecedented pressure from both sides of the political aisle.

That decision: whether or not to vote for President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who this week was the subject of an especially contentious Senate confirmation hearing.

Donnelly's decision could not only affect the balance of power on the nation's highest court, but it might also very well determine his political future.

Donnelly, a Democrat, has a slight edge over his opponent, Republican businessman Mike Braun, in the fight for his Senate seat, according to a recent poll. That said, the race has largely been labeled a toss-up. Just two months out from the election, Donnelly risks losing Trump supporters and Republicans if he votes against Kavanaugh — and his base if he votes for him.

Donnelly has met with Kavanaugh but hasn't indicated how he will vote. 

More:How Donnelly’s stand on abortion could define his career — and loom over re-election bid
Indiana Senate race:New poll shows Donnelly with slight lead over Braun

Conservatives see Kavanaugh as a qualified, experienced candidate who would protect the rights of the unborn and uphold Second Amendment protections for gun owners. His opponents worry he'll overturn Roe v. Wade, not hold Trump accountable and fail to protect healthcare for Americans with pre-existing conditions.

Ads from the right

Millions of dollars worth of ads for and against Kavanaugh have filled the airwaves and social media feeds in Indiana and other states with vulnerable Democrat candidates.

The Judicial Crisis Network has spent more than $2 million in ads in West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana and Alabama, emphasizing Kavanaugh's credentials.

"Why won't Joe Donnelly commit to supporting Kavanaugh?" the narrator in the Judicial Crisis Network's Indiana ad asks. "Is he more interested in siding with Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren than Hoosiers?"

Likewise, the National Rifle Association launched an ad in Indiana and five other states this month, stating, "Your right to self defense depends on this vote." The pro-Trump America First Policies is spending millions to broadcast pro-Kavanaugh ads in Indiana and two other states and Americans for Prosperity activists have been knocking on doors, making phone calls and sending out mailers in an attempt to convince Donnelly to vote for Kavanaugh.

Braun and Trump, too, have turned the vote into a campaign issue. 

On Thursday, Braun held a media phone call, criticizing Donnelly for holding out on deciding whether to support Kavanaugh. 

"I think every day that Joe Donelly remains on the sidelines, it shows Hoosiers that his campaign and his decision are orchestrated by Chuck Schumer," Braun said.

Donnelly said he's waiting to make a decision until after the Kavanaugh hearings.

"Hoosiers rightly expect careful and thoughtful consideration of a nomination to our nation’s highest court, and I plan to keep doing my homework and make a decision sometime after Kavanaugh’s committee confirmation hearing," Donnelly said after meeting with Kavanaugh

Ads from the left

On the other side of the aisle, the progressive Demand Justice group is airing ads in Indiana, complimenting Donnelly on his attempt to protect portions of the Affordable Care Act, and warning Hoosiers that those actions could be undone if Trump's nominee is approved. An ACA case focusing on pre-existing condition protections is currently in a district court and could reach the Supreme Court.

Hoosiers chose health care as one of the most important factors when deciding who to vote for in November for Congress, according to the latest NBC News/Marist poll.

During the hearings, Kavanaugh avoided directly answering whether he would uphold the popular Affordable Care Act provision that protects pre-existing conditions.

Screenshot from campaign ad for Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly touting President Trump's praise for Donnelly's work on "Right to Try" legislation.

Earlier this week, a group of activists from The Center for Popular Democracy were arrested after staging a sit-in in Donnelly's D.C. office, opposing the nomination of Kavanaugh. Donnelly's office said Capitol Police were called when the office closed for the day.

Planned Parenthood is also airing ads calling for Senators to oppose Kavanaugh, but the group has all but ignored Indiana. Donnelly is one of the few anti-abortion Democrats left in Congress.

Supreme Court vote a lose-lose for Donnelly?

But as Donnelly weighs his vote on Kavanaugh, there is this to consider: The Trafalgar Group, a group that tends to work with Republicans, released a poll earlier this month showing that Donnelly's lead over Braun would shrink regardless of how he votes on the matter.

The 12 percentage point spread between Donnelly and Braun would drop to less than 1 point if he votes for Kavanaugh and just over 7 percentage points if he votes against Kavanaugh.

So far, Donnelly has voted for and against Trump nominees. He voted for Trump's first Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch, but not for Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.

Even after Trump bashed Donnelly in Evansville last week, Donnelly refrained from saying anything negative about the president.

In Donnelly's latest ad, he explains that "When (Trump) is for Hoosiers, I'm with him," but when it comes to other issues, like pushing Americans off healthcare, he won't vote with him.

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His messaging is paying off: In a three-way race between Braun, Donnelly and Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton, 10 percent of Republicans say they support Donnelly. Only 2 percent of Democrats say they support Braun, according to the NBC News/Marist poll

Will Baskin-Gerwitz, a spokesman for Donnelly's campaign, said Donnelly doesn't feel any pressure to make a quick decision on Kavanaugh, because Hoosiers would rather him avoid jumping to conclusions.

"While there may be some on the far right who want every nominee confirmed immediately, no questions asked, and some on the far left who want them all blocked at every turn, the majority of Hoosiers want a senator who'll take their decision seriously, take every opportunity to listen to each nominee, review each nominee's record and qualifications and only then make a decision," Baskin-Gerwitz said. "That's what Joe's doing, and it's a shame he's the only candidate in the race who would do that."

But Andy Downs, a political scientist at Indiana University-Purdue University, sees the Kavanaugh decision as more complex than Donnelly's previous votes, because of the timing and due to the nature of a lifetime appointment.

"This is a position he has has been in and he is used to being in, and it’s a position he has to be in because he is a Democrat in the state of Indiana," Downs said. "In other words, he doesn’t have an easy choice because he is a Democrat in the state of Indiana."

Call IndyStar reporter Kaitlin Lange at 317-432-9270. Follow her on Twitter: @kaitlin_lange.